Prices, Interest Rates Dampen Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose in July to 100.3 (1985=100), from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—declined to 133.6 from 135.3 last month. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—improved in July to 78.2. That’s up from 72.8 in June but still below 80 (the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead). The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 22, 2024.
“Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Even though consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future; things that may not improve until next year.”
“Compared to last month, consumers were somewhat less pessimistic about the future. Expectations for future income improved slightly, but consumers remained generally negative about business and employment conditions ahead. Meanwhile, consumers were a bit less positive about current labor and business conditions. Potentially, smaller monthly job additions are weighing on consumers’ assessment of current job availability: while still quite strong, consumers’ assessment of the current labor market situation declined to its lowest level since March 2021.”